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Castle Rock, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Castle Rock CO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Castle Rock CO
Issued by: National Weather Service Denver-Boulder, CO
Updated: 3:23 pm MDT Jun 5, 2025
 
Overnight

Overnight: A 20 percent chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Light south southeast wind.
Slight Chance
Showers
Friday

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm.  High near 70. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the morning.  Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Chance
Showers then
T-storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and midnight.  Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49. North wind around 6 mph becoming south southwest in the evening.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Monday

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Mostly Clear

Lo 47 °F Hi 70 °F Lo 47 °F Hi 78 °F Lo 49 °F Hi 76 °F Lo 51 °F Hi 73 °F Lo 50 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Overnight
 
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Light south southeast wind.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. High near 70. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. North wind around 6 mph becoming south southwest in the evening.
Sunday
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Monday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Wednesday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Castle Rock CO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
337
FXUS65 KBOU 060705
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
105 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms over the eastern plains
  this afternoon.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Friday
  afternoon.

- Warmer Saturday with few to no showers/thunderstorms.

- Sunday into next week, near normal temperatures with chances for
  showers and storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms first started forming over the higher
terrain late this morning. Low clouds may have delayed showers and
storms moving off the higher terrain by an hour or two, but
scattered to numerous showers and storms are still on track to for
the urban corridor and eastern plains this afternoon and evening
as a shortwave trough tracks across the region. MLCAPE is up to
1000 J/kg and there`s plenty of moisture and shear to support
strong, to occasionally severe thunderstorms with hail a little
over 1 inch in diameter. Many runs of the HRRR and the last couple
of the NAMNest show a strong/severe storm forming over northern
Weld County and then tracking southeast across Morgan and
Washington Counties through the afternoon hours. This is where the
highest severe weather threat will be. Elsewhere, heavy rain,
small hail (mostly), and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible
with the stronger storms. The storms come to an end mid to late
evening as the airmass stabilizes and storms move off to the east.
A few light showers will be possible after midnight.

Another shortwave trough is on track to trigger scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday. It will remain moist
with dew points in the lower to mid 50s over northeast Colorado.
Similar to today, instability will be marginal for severe
thunderstorms with MLCAPE up to 800 J/kg. The strongest storms are
expected to produce hail up to around 1 inch in diameter and
brief heavy rainfall. The first storms of the day form over the
mountains late in the morning and then spread eastward during the
afternoon hours. Showers and storms progress east of the urban
corridor by early to mid evening and then east of the area by
midnight.

On Saturday, we are still looking for drier northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 80s under mostly
sunny skies. We see a cold front push south through the area
during the evening, but with a drier and more stable airmass in
place, do not expect this to produce any showers or thunderstorms.
North to northeast flow behind the front will slowly increase
moisture across the area.

Better moisture and instability will be over the area again
Sunday. This combined with a shortwave embedded in the northwest
flow aloft will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures cool a little for Sunday
as well with highs across northeast Colorado in the 70s.

For Monday and Tuesday, a weak upper level ridge tracks across
the Great Basin and Central Rockies. This will bring warmer
temperatures with highs returning to the lower to mid 80s across
northeast Colorado by Tuesday. With enough moisture and
instability in place, we expect daily afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms. Though coverage may end up a little less than
we`ve seen this week.

The ridging slides east of the area by Wednesday and west-
southwest flow aloft is expected to prevail for Wednesday and
Thursday. Chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
continue. Increased coverage of showers/storms will be possible if
we see a more organized shortwave trough. Temperatures look to be
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast
Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Low clouds will likely persist throughout the night tonight with
ceilings dropping slowly. Ceilings may drop from 3-5 kft down to
500-1,500 feet. A few model solutions show fog developing around
sunrise at all terminals. However, it is more likely that light
mist or drizzle develops than fog. The end of the morning low
ceilings may extend beyond 14-15Z, when the TAFs currently have
the end time. Worst case scenario seems to be that the low clouds
will move out at 17Z. There is a robust signal in the models that
there will be afternoon thunderstorms. The main concern will be
hail and low visibility which could reach as low as 1 SM. In
addition, winds could gust as high as 40 knots in these storms.

There will again be a threat for low clouds and fog Friday night.
However, the most likely solution is that fog does not develop at
all terminals although if fog does develop, it could bring
visibility down to a quarter of a mile.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Danielson
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